Musk entered the electric vehicle market when the consensus was that electric vehicles could not be practical, affordable, or desirable for mainstream consumers. He entered the private space launch market when the consensus was that only government agencies could operate launch vehicles. In both cases, the opportunity existed not because everyone else had missed it by chance — but because everyone else had reached the same wrong conclusion, and the wrongness of that conclusion was not obvious until someone tested it. The contrarian advantage is specifically the advantage of being right when others are wrong — not the advantage of being different for its own sake. The question is not 'what does no one else believe?' but 'what widely-held belief do I think is actually incorrect, and what evidence do I have?'