Building Businesses That Break Patterns

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The application of first principles thinking to business is what separates the builder who creates new categories from the one who competes more efficiently in existing ones. Elon Musk's battery cost analysis for Tesla is the canonical example: rather than accepting the industry assumption that batteries would always be expensive, he broke the battery down to its component materials, priced those materials, and discovered that the physics-based cost of a battery was dramatically lower than what the industry was paying. That gap between the physics cost and the market cost was the business. In Lagos and across Africa, this kind of analysis applies urgently: the physics cost of many services — education, healthcare, logistics, finance — is far lower than what people actually pay. The gap between those two numbers is the opportunity.