Second-order thinking is the practice of asking not just 'what will happen if I do this?' but 'what will happen as a result of what happens?' First-order consequences are usually obvious and short-term. Second-order consequences are less obvious and often more important. Many decisions that look smart in the first order turn out to be destructive in the second. A government subsidises a staple food to reduce prices — first order win. Farmers reduce production because the subsidy undercuts their market — second order loss. A company discounts heavily to acquire customers — first order growth. Customer expectations reset to the discounted price and the brand's value perception drops — second order damage. The discipline of second-order thinking does not make decisions more complicated; it makes them more accurate.