In the standard economic textbook view, recessions are caused by external shocks — wars, oil price spikes, pandemics — and the economy's natural tendency is toward full employment and stable growth. Keen challenges this. Drawing on Minsky and his own empirical analysis, he argues that serious recessions are predominantly caused by the unwinding of private debt buildups. The boom was created by rising private debt; the recession is the debt-deflation process when that debt becomes unsustainable. This matters for how you interpret economic conditions in Nigeria: the regular boom-bust cycle, the sudden shifts in business environment, the periodic credit crunches are not random events. They follow a pattern driven by credit conditions. Understanding that pattern does not eliminate the risk, but it helps you identify where you are in the cycle and prepare accordingly.